From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn’t stop anyone

The US government's decision to restrict Anthropic's export of its AI models Fable and Mythos was triggered by two events: Anthropic's provision of Mythos to a South Korean telecom, SK Telecom, which US officials suspected had ties to China, and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's alert about researchers finding a way to circumvent Fable 5's safeguards. Anthropic disputes the characterization of this as a "jailbreak," calling it a narrow, already-patched issue. The Commerce Department's export control directive forced Anthropic to quickly limit access to its products within 90 minutes of being notified. This episode marks a significant development in the US government's efforts to regulate the export of powerful AI models.

The US government's attempt to control the export of AI models echoes its past experiences with encryption and spyware. In the 1990s, the government tried to restrict the distribution of Pretty Good Privacy (PGP), an encryption software, citing national security concerns. However, this effort ultimately failed, and PGP's creator, Phil Zimmermann, prevailed in his fight against the government. Similarly, the Wassenaar Arrangement, an international treaty aimed at limiting the export of dual-use software and technologies, has had limited success in curbing the proliferation of spyware. Despite these challenges, the US government is now applying similar export controls to AI models, which could have significant implications for the AI industry.

The outcome of this standoff between Anthropic and the US government will have far-reaching consequences for the AI industry. If the government buckles and lifts the restriction, it would acknowledge that AI labs elsewhere, including in China, will likely reach similar capabilities regardless of US restrictions. On the other hand, if American AI companies are required to obtain government approval before serving foreign customers, it could create a significant compliance burden and dent their bottom line. As the AI industry continues to evolve, the government's approach to regulating AI exports will play a crucial role in shaping the competitive landscape.